The estimated chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 has risen to 1 in 43. Despite this increase, experts reassure there is no immediate reason for concern.
Assessing the Risk
Previously, the likelihood of impact was 1 in 83, equating to a 1.2% probability. The updated figure of 1 in 43 represents a 2.3% chance, meaning Earth still has a 97.7% probability of avoiding impact.
Astronomer David Rankin, monitoring the asteroid since its discovery in December 2024, emphasizes that such fluctuations are normal. The increase in probability results from refinements in orbital data, which should become more precise over time.
Understanding Orbital Uncertainty
Rankin explains that while an asteroid’s orbital plane can be determined accurately, pinpointing its exact position along that path is more challenging. This uncertainty creates a “line of variation,” leading to temporary changes in impact probability.
Using an analogy, Rankin compares the situation to holding a long stick: a minor movement on one end results in significant shifts at the other, just as small observational errors can influence asteroid trajectory predictions.
Ongoing Monitoring Efforts
Currently, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth, making direct observations more difficult. However, Rankin and other astronomers will continue tracking it with the Catalina Sky Survey’s advanced telescopes. Scientists are also reviewing archival data from 2016 to refine calculations.
If prior observations confirm the asteroid’s actual trajectory, experts may rule out any chance of a 2032 impact. Should uncertainties persist, further observations in 2028 will provide more clarity.
Final Thoughts
Although impact probabilities have slightly increased, the dominant expectation remains that 2024 YR4 will safely pass Earth. As more data is gathered, the likelihood of collision is expected to decrease significantly. For now, there is no cause for public concern.
